Cultist Simulator: Why Moth 10 Still Fails to Destroy Evidence

Your Moth 10 follower fails, returns wounded, and leaves the Evidence on the table. That does not mean you need an even stronger follower. For the ordinary Evidence-destruction action, the documented success rate stops at 70% once the acting follower has Moth 5. Moth 8 and Moth 10 do not unlock another tier.

The useful decision is therefore not “How do I reach Moth 10?” It is “Who already reaches Moth 5, and what can I afford to lose if this attempt fails?” This guide covers that direct action in the ordinary, unmodded game. It includes investigation mechanics, but no ending or expedition solutions.

Check which action you are actually starting

Use Talk with the follower, then add the Evidence as the subject. The action should describe sending that follower to destroy Evidence. Adding your Cult card instead starts Cult Business, which is a different action with different results. Do not borrow a success-rate rule from that activity just because the same follower can do both.

Look at the acting card’s Moth aspect rather than treating its promotion rank as a universal success guarantee. The Evidence recipe checks the follower, Moth, and Evidence Level. The relevant high-tier recipe asks for Moth 5; it does not introduce a second check at Moth 10.

Both Tentative Evidence and Damning Evidence with Evidence Level use these destruction rolls. The names alone can mislead: the Detective job also produces look-alike Evidence cards with Suspicious instead. If your card will not fit, inspect its aspects before assuming the action is broken.

The three success tiers

For this action, the documented breakpoints are:

• Moth 0: 10% success. Having no Moth does not make the attempt impossible, but it makes it a poor gamble.
• Moth 1–4: 30% success. Improving within this range does not reach the next tier.
• Moth 5 or more: 70% success. This includes Moth 5, 8, 10, and higher values.

The low-Moth and no-Moth recipes have their own 30% and 10% success rolls. The Moth 5 recipe supplies the ceiling.

The ordinary Evidence action has no 90% tier at Moth 10. Rates shown in the 2023.5.P.9 game-data snapshot.

This makes a gift useful for the chance of this action only if it crosses a relevant threshold. Raising an acting card from Moth 4 to Moth 5 changes its tier. Raising it from Moth 5 to Moth 8 does not. A stronger follower may still be useful elsewhere; that is a separate reason to invest in it.

Why Moth 10 is an exception

In an August 2018 developer reply, Alexis Kennedy explained that guaranteed Evidence destruction would be too strong because a successful attempt does not create Notoriety. The exception was deliberate, rather than an overlooked Moth 10 bonus.

Old discussions can be misleading here. Some talk about former rules for other actions, and even a January 2025 answer claimed that Moth 10 gave 90% for Evidence. A February 4 correction in the same thread explicitly rejected that claim; the original commenter accepted the correction. Read the corrected answer, not just the first confident number.

A failed attempt is not a free reroll

On success, the targeted Evidence is destroyed without new Notoriety from this action. That does not remove Notoriety already elsewhere on your table. On failure, the Evidence remains and the attempt creates Notoriety.

The failed action also puts its agent at risk. The documented mortal-follower failure applies a wound rather than simply returning the follower unharmed. The generic failure branch destroys the follower used by that branch, which is why a summon can disappear when the attempt goes wrong. Do not treat an expendable agent as a cost-free one.

Before repeating the attempt, check the returned card’s condition and what other agents are available. Keeping a valuable mortal follower healthy can matter more than using the card with the largest Moth number. If you already have a suitable summon with Moth 5 or more, its advantage here is avoiding risk to that mortal follower, not beating the 70% ceiling. Replacing the summon still takes resources and time.

Two failures do not improve the next roll

At 70% success, each qualifying attempt has a 30% failure chance. Under the same fixed, independent odds, two failures in a row have a 9% chance and three have a 2.7% chance. An unlucky sequence is possible without any hidden Moth requirement.

The distinction is between planning a sequence and standing partway through it. Before three attempts, the chance of at least one success is 97.3%. After two have already failed, the next attempt is still 70%, not 97.3%. The earlier failures do not turn the remaining attempt into a near-certainty.

These are probability calculations for unchanged, independent 70% rolls. They do not guarantee that you have time, agents, or safety for three attempts.

That last limitation matters more than the reassuring 97.3%. A calculation about eventual success does not pay for wounds, replace a lost summon, or prevent the new Notoriety from becoming a problem. Avoid planning around retries you cannot actually support.

Choose the agent, then decide whether to retry

1. Confirm the target. You are dealing with Evidence and starting the direct Evidence-destruction action, not asking for Cult Business.
2. Find the cheapest acceptable agent already at Moth 5 or above. Judge “cheap” by the consequences for your current run, not just the card’s aspect total.
3. Do not delay solely for a Moth 10 upgrade. It adds no success tier to this action. A Moth 2 follower and a Moth 5 follower are a meaningful comparison; Moth 5 versus Moth 10 is not a better-odds comparison.
4. Check the board after failure. The original Evidence is still your problem, and new Notoriety makes the failed attempt consequential. Reassess the agent and timing rather than automatically sending the same valuable follower again.

This is not a recommendation to destroy every Evidence card immediately or to wait out every investigation. Those decisions depend on the board. The reliable takeaway is narrower: once your agent reaches Moth 5, better risk management helps more than chasing a nonexistent 90% tier.

Version scope

The recipe values above are documented in Frangiclave’s Cultist Simulator 2023.5.P.9 data snapshot and agree with the February 2025 correction. They have not been playtested in a current desktop or mobile build. Mods or later mechanical changes may differ.

Playdigious’s February 26, 2026 notes for Android 3.9 and iOS 3.9.3 list a Physician legacy fix and Russian font fixes, not a change to Evidence-destruction odds. Those notes are useful version context, not proof that every platform build uses identical data.

Sources and further reading